Sunday, September 12, 2004

Hypothetical Irony 

Here's something interesting to consider.

Quite a bit of activist outrage about Bush administration activities centers around the fact that the bastard wasn't elected. While everyone can argue about how the elctoral college count should have ended up, it's objectively clear that the guy did not win the popular vote. It's insanely undemocratic to have allowed this guy to become president -- hence, "Re-defeat Bush" bumper stickers, etc.

Now let's think about this year. Nationally, it's a statisical tie, and will likely remain so, barring a big October Surprise (still a definite posibility). But, electorally, Kerry retains an uncomfortable lead.

(check out this site for a Kerry-biased electoral map based on the most recent polling -- I disagree with the methadology behind counting statisitcal ties as "leaning" one way or the other, but you can calculate it however you want based on the available data, and Kerry comes out just a tad ahead)

(for a Bush-biased site with the same purpose [but with worse html skills], check out this site, which has Bush ahead in just about everything, but has this posted, without comment, among the otherwise universally positive news:
Bush gains New Hampshire!
Changes due to State Polls:
Iowa to Kerry
New Mexico to Kerry
Oregon to Kerry
Maine (district 2) to Kerry

So -- what will we Democratic "count every vote" types do if Kerry wins electorally but not popularly? Will we fight tooth and nail for Kerry to assume the presidency or will we accept that the massively and criminally uninformed people have spoken, and chosen the destruction of their country and way of life?

Obviously, there will be other factors -- massive voter fraud will be a problem this year, both high and low-tech, the media will be easily cowed into repeating the ruling class' party line, there will be no paper trail for much of the country, and so on. But I really can't imagine what sort of consequences there will be if Kerry clearly comes out ahead electorally and loses popularly.

Well, I do know that it will be the end of the electoral college. But it'll force a lot of principled people to fight very strongly against their own self-interest.

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